I have always stated my point that Disagree with the Pheu Thai Party’s project to distribute 10,000 baht digital money. and has written and expressed reasons both directly and indirectly through this column many times. Reasons in economics I agree with the open letter of 99 economists one hundred percent. And there are also many personal reasons from my experience. Importantly, I do not believe that 500 billion baht will spin “like a storm” many times, causing GDP in 2024 to increase by another 2- 3 percent until it becomes 5-7 percent, as one private university recently predicted. Suppose it actually turns out and comes out to be 5-7 percent. The question is, will it continue to rotate next year or that year? Does this 500,000 million baht still have magical powers? If it loses its magical powers, there will be no more money to stimulate it. As a result, next year’s GDP will begin to deteriorate by 3-4 percent, at the rate that it should be. People will find out whether GDP will shrink in that year or not? Because it used to be up to 5-7 percent, but has dropped to only 3-4 percent. In the formula for calculating GDP, he said that there are 4 important factors or 4 engines: consumption, private investment, and spending. Government sector and exports minus imports that will cause GDP to increase or decrease among these 4 engines. If you look deeper, you will see that “consumption” or where the formula often uses the letter C, which comes from Consumption, is the engine that is most worrisome because it must be looked at. for that consumption Where do people get their money from? If you use it from your own income, that’s enough. Because you don’t borrow or borrow for consumption, you won’t be in debt to anyone…household debt won’t increase, but if you borrow it to use or don’t have it yet, you just ask to pay in installments by creating debt like this. It is considered dangerous consumption. Because if people end up in high debt The government will have a headache, as the NESDB and the Bank of Thailand have always warned. Regarding household debt at this time, well, even though people use their own money, don’t borrow from anyone, and don’t owe anyone anything…but getting it and paying it all off without any savings is worse. Because some economic theories say that “savings” are “investments.” If people consume everything, they won’t save at all. After a while, there will be no money to invest. For this reason, playing with the letter C or the letter “Consumer” has been taught by economists to be careful…it may be beneficial in terms of stimulating total income quickly. But one has to be careful of other side effects that will follow, so they use it carefully. Used out of necessity during the next period of time to survive from time to time. For the most part, this government, especially the Pheu Thai Party, will use consumers to solve the problem of increasing GDP. which increases slowly and increases so low that it loses to its neighbors Therefore, the question is whether it is correct or not? Many analysts think that our GDP is increasing at a low rate. Because we have many structural problems…such as There are too many elderly workers…some production systems are outdated…competitiveness has deteriorated somewhat if the problem is really like this. But if we solve the problem by stimulating consumption, it will become a temporary solution. It did not solve the structural problem. But somehow…next year, the year after the momentum is gone, the rate of increase will have to be lower anyway. I leave this as a thought, like a lizard saying hello again. And in the future, it will probably be less. Because when the Prime Minister and the Deputy Finance Minister made their announcements last time, There are many new lizards that have been added. Even more forceful than me, please allow me to act like the first 99 economists. He came out to say hello and then was completely silent. Leave it to Thai society and Thai people who have common sense to help each other say hello. In the future, I will act like you. Because it seems that Thai society has woken up quite a bit…the cries are louder than before and many times louder than before right now.”Zoom” click to read more of the “Hehapathi” column.
