This summer, Thai people in every region have to face “the hottest weather on record in April,” resulting in maximum temperatures of approximately 43-44 degrees Celsius, causing many areas to break their own records compared to the past, affecting to the economy, society, and environment in an unprecedented manner. This reflects “The fragility of the world” from the use of fossil energy creates large amounts of greenhouse gases. “A blanket covers the earth and stores heat from the sun,” causing global warming. And climate change has caused the El Niño phenomenon, causing dry, “extremely hot” weather. It is expected to weaken in the middle of May 2024 before entering “La Niña phenomenon” that can cause continuous heavy rain and flooding. Associate Professor Dr. Seri Suparathit, director of the Center for Climate Change and Disasters at Rangsit University, said that this year’s extremely hot weather has broken records in almost every area, and temperatures are still higher than the 30-year average. 4- 5 degrees Celsius affects everyone’s way of life. The cause comes from two main issues: the first issue… “Global warming” caused by the increased use of fossil energy to create economic growth, GDP in each country, according to the report. European countries were the only ones with decreased CO2 emissions, while China, India, and Asian countries And North America still uses energy to emit CO2 up 1-5% in 2022, even though it must decrease 9% per year, making the world’s average temperature “in April this year rise 1.8 degrees Celsius”, exceeding the Paris Agreement limit. To not let the world rise above 1.5 degrees. The second issue…”Influence of El Niño” since December 2023, El Niño has raised its level and rebounded, having a long-lasting impact for another 4- 6 months and there is still a case “Volcano erupts in Iceland. and Indonesia,” causing the ash dust to cover the sky as a greenhouse curtain, acting like a blanket on the earth, not allowing the sun’s heat to easily reflect off, causing heat to accumulate. In addition, there is a minor factor from the sun releasing a lot of energy in the past 11 years: “Temperature has increased by 0.2 degrees”. All of these things are triggers to stimulate global warming until recently “Thailand” has experienced the hottest weather conditions like never before. There is no precedent only. “This extremely hot weather” has resulted in fewer summer storms occurring. Because normally the hot air for many consecutive days often forms “clouds” and then the cool air mass from the Gulf of Thailand comes in and collides with the hot air mass. “Thunderstorms occur,” but this year the weather is extremely hot, making the wind not strong enough to bring in moisture, causing the problem. “Record high temperatures” have had an unprecedented impact on the economy, society, and environment, such as “GDP in the agricultural sector at the beginning of this year decreased by 4.1%,” with crops minus 6.4%. Durians ripen quickly and are not sweet, damaged. 30-40% of coconuts that do not bear fruit are damaged, 90% of grapes that produce little fruit and water are damaged by 70%. The value of the damage is more than 60 billion baht. The reason that the damage is more than every year comes from “Severe El Niño occurrence” Although this year the severity level is lower than in the past: 1998 plus 2.4, 2010 plus 2.6 and 2024 plus 2.0, but the severity of the drought index is even higher. Associate Professor Dr. Seri Suparathit, therefore, drought index predictions can indicate that “What will happen in the next 1–24 months” to use in planning the risk of this severe weather event. The main reason that 2024 “has a severe drought index” is from higher temperatures from climate change causing agricultural production to decrease “Even though some areas have good water costs,” at the same time, damage to the agricultural sector still depends on the area. and preparing to deal with the application of new knowledge. The El Niño phenomenon is about to transition to the La Niña phenomenon. Based on an analysis of data dating back more than 50 years, “it was found that there is a possibility of a drought. and the floods are related to the Enzo phenomenon” which is a 25% variation of natural phenomena in the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the situation must be further assessed. The issue is that “Thailand has gone through extreme heat.” Starting from the second week of May 2024, temperatures will drop no more than 40 degrees Celsius. “Some areas will start to receive 10-20 millimeters of rain per day,” causing moisture. Some, especially in the northeastern, eastern and southern regions, have had more relief from the heat. Now it is a transition from “El Niño to La Niña” makes the amount of water in the beginning of the rainy season in April-May 2024 “still not very good,” but when entering the middle of the rainy season, the amount of water will start to improve. “Hot temperatures will decrease,” especially from this month. July onwards will enter a mid-level La Niña mode that will stimulate the rainfall to continue improving. Even causing heavy rain in some areas such as the “central, eastern and southern regions” where there may be flooding in the form of water waiting to be drained for 4-5 days in the northern and upper northeastern regions. Because the rain fell within the normal average range. “The amount of rain is also low.” This matter may affect the year 2025, having to face the problem of low cost water if we look at the situation. “Water in large dams right now” whether it is Bhumibol Dam or Sirikit Dam, the amount of water remaining in storage is less than 30% of the dam capacity. As such, we must wait and see whether the rainfall from La Niña influence will fall over the dam or not. But in the past, the rain usually fell under the dam mostly because it was normal during this period. “A strong monsoon trough lies across the upper part of the country,” but with rain returning slowly at the end of the year when the monsoon trough moves down, the “central region” becomes at risk of further drought. When this happens, it must Excited with “Storms moving into Thailand” which will be a factor helping water fill the main dams in the northern and upper northeastern regions. And this year it is expected that during the month May-October, there will be approximately 18 tropical storms, from an average of 20, and 10 typhoons from an average of 13. “More than 90% of the storm’s path tends to make landfall in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and China, while the other 10 % may move into Thailand by about 1-2 volcanoes, but advance rain forecasts are uncertain. The government must monitor the situation and manage risks if there are severe weather events that affect flooding in the area,” Associate Professor Doc free router that reinforces the problem “Thailand manages water from year to year” by collecting water this year and usually using it all within the year. “Relying on luck or relying on the Maew parade” to wait for the heavens to send rainwater down turns out to be “Thai farmers” Always have to face drought Therefore, the government must manage the risk so that the amount of water costs before the rainy season next year is 60% of capacity, especially to solve the problem. “Off-season rice farming” uses a lot of water but has a lower yield, averaging 1 rai per 430 kg. But if compared with “Vietnam and India” have introduced technology to help in the cultivation of off-season rice until they can produce a yield of 1,000 kg. per rai, or Austria has a yield of 1,700 kg. per rai. This story shows that “The governments of these countries” give importance to the use of water for maximum benefit and value. Therefore, the Thai government must support technological innovation to help create efficient agricultural products. Along with managing water costs to be usable for at least 3 years to reduce the risk of severe drought because it is predicted in the middle of 2025-2026 “La Niña will transition back to El Niño again” if It’s really back to El Niño. The situation may be more critical than in 2024 because right now only 30% of the upper area has water, making it necessary to continue monitoring the situation. Because long-term forecasts are always inaccurate, this is the weather situation, warning the “government” that it’s time to formulate a concrete strategic plan with emphasis on “Adjustment measures” so that people will have knowledge And be aware of the dangers of Climate Change, which is not a joke…Click to read more about the “Scoop Page 1” column.
