The whole world is watching the conflict. “In the Middle East,” which has erupted since Israel and Iran launched the first direct missile and drone strikes against each other. After being arch enemies who have been fighting in secret for a long time, this may escalate into a major war in this region, causing the situation in the Middle East to become hotter which may intensify from now on. Dr. Sarawut Aree, Director of the Muslim Studies Center Institute of Asian Studies Chulalongkorn Maha The college analyzed that The Israeli-Iranian battle is quite tense. And the precariousness may escalate into a major war in the region in the Middle East. If we look at the trigger, it comes from “Israel attacks the Gaza Strip” after Hamas The unexpected attack on October 7th made the Palestinian crisis not limited to the fighting in Gaza, but linked many fronts in the Middle East. “There is a movement of armed groups” allied with Iran to help the Palestinians. This incident has spread and has led to The “conflict between Israel and Iran” has caused new violent clashes because in the past these two countries fought a proxy war. and secret wars They haven’t directly fought with each other for more than 40 years. It’s just that the rest of the world doesn’t feel that it’s a big deal. But in reality, it was a minor war, causing many deaths even on April 1, 2024, “Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria,” causing the deaths of seven high-ranking military officers and officials. On April 13-14, “Iran” responded with 300 drones and missiles fired into Israel and also attempted to retaliate with small drones at “Iran” but many were cut down, showing that “Israel-Iran have opened a game of direct confrontation and retaliation” has become a dangerous and precarious force majeure event leading to “Expanding the war” to become hotter throughout the Middle East region is possible. If we look back at the origins of the conflict “Between Israel and Iran” arises from mutual suspicion of two major issues: the first issue is “the issue of Palestine” because after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, it was written in the constitution that the issue of Palestine was an important issue with the outcome Iran’s benefits It has made us want to see the creation of a Palestinian state ever since. “Israel saw Iran as a threat” and began fighting a war until in 1982, “Israel” invaded and occupied southern Lebanon. “which is a land inhabited by Shia Muslims,” causing Iran to send 1500 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soldiers to incite the masses, even leading to “The creation of the Hezbollah group (Hezbollah)” to use as a proxy war force against “Israel” until it had to withdraw its troops in 2000 and then there was another conflict in 2006 has become a sensitive issue. Israel-Iran have always been suspicious of each other. The next factor is the second suspicion… “Iranian nuclear weapons development” because Israel was previously the only country in the Middle East that was able to successfully develop and produce nuclear weapons. Until today, the United States And Israel began to suspect that Iran was about to develop nuclear weapons as well, causing it to attempt several blocking measures in the past. “To keep Iran from successfully developed nuclear weapons” by using Israel to covertly attack Iran’s nuclear facilities several times. Including allies such as the “USA and Western countries” have issued sanctions measures. and severed diplomatic relations as well. Later in 2015, “United States President Barack Obama” made an agreement with Iran next. “In the era of Donald Trump, the President of the United States” has torn up the agreement, causing the relationship of the United States. Israel and Iran are so tense that the United States Using a drone to kill Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iraq in 2017. 2020 At that time, the whole world was afraid that “Iran-USA” will even have a major war. In the end, “Iran” only responded by firing missiles at US military bases in Iraq. All of the things mentioned above are important foundations for the two countries to arise. Suspicious of each other, leading to direct confrontation as shown today, reinforcing the reason why “Iran dares to directly confront Israel” because with the world situation changing today, we have seen that “China and Russia have risen up to oppose the power of the United States. ” Recently Iran, China and Russia have had closer relations, especially in trade. And this multi-level cooperation in security has resulted in “Iran” no longer being isolated like before. Makes it possible to fight with Israel and Western allied nations even However, for Iran’s military operations during the past 13-14 April, it can be seen that it tried to limit damage to Israel despite having the potential to do more than that. Most of them focused on destroying military security, such as ” Israel Air Base” with the aim of not causing any damage to civilians, 2-3 days before the operation, “Iran” revealed this matter to its allies to bring the news to “the United States” and was even prepared to deal with it. Because Iran is not ready to launch a full-scale war with Israel. and Western nations because they “have economic problems” and war must have huge costs. Therefore, Iran does not want a major war. Because even though there is China And Russia gradually helps, but “China” comes into the Middle East wanting to trade and doesn’t want to get involved in conflicts. “Russia” is still in a serious enough war with Ukraine, so “Iran” cannot be trusted with help.” China and Russia” have narrowed their recent military operations against Israel. “In order not to create problems for your own country,” therefore, causing problems that may lead to “A major war in the Middle East” must be aimed at Israel. The war may be due to “Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel,” currently not being as popular with the people as it should be because “has been prosecuted for corruption” and has not been successful in the Gaza war In addition, he failed in news until Hamas armed fighters were able to attack unexpectedly on October 7th. Therefore, Netanyahu was unable to gain popularity among the people in the country and had to create an external threat. Because it is a small country surrounded by enemies And whenever there is a threat, the people are often united like this. Netanyahu will be able to continue his political life by relying on “creating and expanding wars” and if he can win, he will do so. “Get back the popular vote.” So will this conflict escalate into a large-scale war in the Middle East? It is likely due to provocation from Israel. Even the “Secretary General of the United Nations” has expressed concern that this event is turning into an abyss in the Middle East, possibly sparking a war that cannot return to the original point. “impact on the economy” that the international community does not want to happen due to factors from The “Middle East” is an important strategic point. “Crude oil production” also has a specific trade route. The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s sphere of influence, used to transport oil from “Persian Gulf to the world market” also has “The Strait of Bab El Mandeb” is the southernmost strait of the Red Sea, an area of Houthi influence. In this matter, “Iran” has announced that it will close both straits several times since Major General Qasem Soleimani. Was assassinated, so “Thailand” must keep a close eye on conflicts in the Middle East region. and understanding to assess the situation so as not to affect the interests of Thai people investing in the Middle East Emphasize that the conflict “Israel-Iran” No one can clearly predict the direction of the conflict. But it is considered a precarious point that risks causing a major war in the Middle East region. It can worsen the world economy.
