inclement weather Must we prepare for whether there will be a major flood in Thailand or not? In the second half of 2024, especially in risky areas After the El Niño phenomenon that causes temperatures to increase until the weather is hot. The world is in unprecedented rage. It will end in May this year, switching to a La Niña phenomenon. causing Thailand to have more rainfall than usual and the temperature drops The El Niño phenomenon alternating with La Niña in the same year occurs very rarely. In the past 75 years, it has occurred only 10 times. Sept. – Oct. Central, Eastern, and Southern regions are at risk of heavy flooding but La Niña and El Niño phenomena It is not the only factor that indicates flood and drought situations. So what factors are involved? “Associate Professor Dr. Seri Suparathit” Chairman of the Executive Committee, Futuretales LAB, MQDC and expert The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that the drought and floods in Thailand throughout the country From the past more than 50 years until the present. There is also the factor of climate variability in the Indian Ocean. with a violent amount and the path of the upcoming storm as well But El Niño or La Niña? It is a factor indicating that global temperatures will rise. or lower than normal, approximately plus-minus 0.2 to plus-minus 0.3 degrees, causing the end of 2024 to have lower temperatures than in 2023. From the weather assessment in the second half of 2024, it was found that during May -June: The average amount of rain is still less than normal in every region except the southern region, and as the months of July-August pass, the amount of rain will begin to increase in every region. Especially in the central, eastern and southern regions, until the end of the rainy season in September-October, the amount of rain continues to increase in the eastern and southern regions, causing heavy to very heavy rainfall to be forecast in the second half. Later in the year in the central, eastern and southern regions, the situation will have to be closely monitored to see if an incident will occur. “Major flood” or not? You must keep an eye on the eastern and southern regions where there is a chance of frequent flooding. It was a flash flood. Water waiting to be drained from a short period of heavy rain. Or is it a big flood from the influence of a local storm? Including the central region must keep an eye on flooding as well. Because the water catchment area decreases every year. from changes in land use conditions Even though the amount of water above is small But the water level is higher than in 2011 and has already overflowed the embankment in 2021 and 2022, causing damage to property in many areas.” This is a warning from Associate Professor Dr. Seri Suparathit La Niya urged that from September to December there will be rain and flooding in the northeast, extremely cold as well. “Associate Professor Dr. Wisanu Atthawanich” Lecturer, Faculty of Economics Kasetsart University As a research expert in climate change and agriculture Citing the latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) and the European Medium-Range Forecast Center, El Niño will end in May 2024 and will transition to a neutral phase. or normal conditions during June to July, then La Niña will return from August and is expected to end in May 2025″La Niña will The highest point is in January 2025 and the La Niña period accelerates around September to December 2024. You must be careful of flooding, and in November 2024 the Northeastern region may begin to experience colder weather than usual. Because La Niña is most likely to be at a weak to moderate level.” The average forecast of 12 meteorological offices around the world indicates that in June 2024, the amount of rain will still be slightly below normal average almost everywhere. Countries, except the southern region, by the northern region and some parts of the northeastern region Must be careful of a protracted drought. In the southern region, the amount of rain will be higher than the normal average, and in July 2024, the amount of rain will still be lower than the normal average in the northern region. and western region As for the southern region, there will be more than normal average rainfall. And in other regions, the amount of rain will return to normal in November. Rain will return to normal, except in the southern region. Be careful of flooding in August 2024. The amount of rain will still be lower than the normal average in the western region. As for the lower central, eastern and northeastern regions, Rainfall will fall below normal average. As for the northern region, the rain will return to normal. and the southern region will have more rain than usual, while in September 2024 the forecasts from 12 meteorological agencies around the world began to change direction. It indicates that all regions will have equal or above normal average rainfall. Especially in the northern, northeastern and southern regions because the amount of rain will be higher than normal. In October, all regions must be careful of flooding. Especially the western and upper southern regions. You may have to be more careful than other regions before November. Rainfall returns to normal in every region. Except in the southern region, you must be very careful of flooding because October is the rainy season with high rainfall. “Prepare to deal with fluctuating weather conditions. It’s like riding a rollercoaster. Because El Niño alternates with La Niña in the same year, it doesn’t happen very often. In the past 75 years, there have been only 10 times. And prepare for the amount of rain that will be higher than normal. Rice farmers must be careful of rice falling during heavy rain. This may cause flooding in farm areas, damaging crops and high humidity. Conducive to disease outbreaks and pests. and storms can cause damage”.
